***free pick***
Today Daniel Elahi Galan (Colombia) will face Roberto Carballes Baena (Spain).Galan as pointed out yesterday when we already bet on him against Popko a player who will be inside the top100 by the end of this season and inside the top50 at the end of next season if he stays healthy. After he won the challenger in Lima he continues to show a very high level of tennis this week here in Campinas. The good news today compared to yesterday are that he had an easy match against Popko and therefore will be physically fit for this contest. Yesterday he beat Popko in under 90 minutes playing with a high confidence.Galan served a really good first serve rate (65%) which created a good amount of free points for him or gave him a good opportunity of a one-two punch in the rally. That was the most important difference yesterday against Popko (who was actually playing a good level, Galan was just better).Today Galan will face Carballes. Carballes already for some time on the tour now, i never really felt that he is an ATP player more a challenger regular. Good results since the return of the tour, one outstanding victory against Shapovalov at the French Open, one semifinal and two quarterfinals here in South America. Hard matches yesterday and on Wednesday against Safwat (who is not a clay player) and Kopriva, both matches going over three sets. Carballes showed clear weaknesses especially on his own serve as a player with his style of game has to serve on a high first serve rate which has not been the case this week so far.H2h 2-0 in favor of Galan, one match just last week where Galan beat him 7:6, 6:2.For me this price is very weird. Galan was the favourite last week @1.57 and beat Carballes easily and today (despite having the shorter match yesterday) he is all of a sudden @1.87? It just makes no sense for me and I actually expect a huge drop in the odds over the next hours until this match starts.
My bet goes on Daniel Elahi Galan Ml @1.861 (Pinnacle).